The ‘China Test’ in India’s grand strategy 

(MainsGS2:Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.)

Context:

• The disputed boundary has remained at the heart of India-China relations since and the convention of marking the territory through physical presence has been the trigger for violent clashes.

Principal contradiction:

• China is contemporary India’s principal strategic contradiction and every other challenge, be it Pakistan, internal insurgencies, and difficulties in relations with its neighbors, fall in the category of secondary contradictions.
• Major decisions in New Delhi’s strategic decision matrix should be rounded to pass the China test.
• The concept of a principal contradiction — one that poses the most intense challenge to an individual/organization, and has the power to shape its future choices and consequent outcomes — is a useful method of optimizing and prioritizing strategic decision-making. 

The ‘China test’:

• From an operational point of view, the ‘China test’ consists of three distinct elements. 
• First, an assessment of how a certain Indian decision or a specific regional development squares with Chinese regional strategy or interests. 
• Second, an assessment of whether India’s decision or a certain regional development would require India to make modifications at the level of secondary contradictions. 
• And third, an assessment of whether this would require any major policy changes internally.

Impact of India-U.S. relations:

• Despite its withdrawal from the region, Washington is seeking to re-engage southern Asia (Pakistan, South Asia in general, the Indo-Pacific, and perhaps even the Taliban). 
• It appears that one of the lessons New Delhi learnt from the standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control in 2020 was that it was perhaps a consequence of India’s growing proximity to the U.S.
• Given that Beijing seeks to dominate the region, it is clearly not in its interest to see an American re-engagement of the region or growing India-U.S. proximity.
•  The China test would suggest that New Delhi should not give into the short-term temptation of not being on the wrong side of China given its long-term implications. 

India-Russia relations:

• India-Russia relations in the wake of the Ukraine war are among the most debated bilateral relationships in the world today. 
• The U.S. and its allies would like India to stop engaging with Moscow and condemn its aggression against Ukraine — which India has refused to do so far. 
• In return, there is no greater accommodation of Indian interests including perhaps diplomatic and political support against Chinese aggression. 
• There is also the growing proximity between Moscow and Beijing which reduces the robustness of India-Russia relations.

Conclusion:

• The message from the China test is a rather straightforward one for New Delhi i.e. smart balancing China in Southern Asia and beyond must form a key element in India’s grand strategic planning and decision making.