TWO BAD OPTIONS

(GS 2:Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests)

Context:

• President  Joe Biden’s push for an interim unity government in Afghanistanis a testament to his administration’s grim assessment of the situation in the war-torn country.
• In a letter to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has proposed a senior-level meeting between the government and the Talibanin Turkey.
• This multilateral conference of envoys from the U.S., Russia, China, Iran, India and Pakistan will discuss a lasting Afghan solution. 

U.S. Afghan policy:

• The peace push comes at a time when the Biden administration is reviewing the U.S.’s Afghan strategy.
• According to the February 2020 agreement signed between the Trump administration and the Taliban, the U.S. is scheduled to withdraw its troops by May 1.
• The Taliban have warned they would step up fighting targeting the coalition troops should the U.S. fail to pull out by then.
• The Biden administration is understandably under pressure.
• There appears to be a consensus in Washington that there is no military solution to the crisis.
• The U.S. wants to get out of the longest war in its history.
• But asS. Secretary of State Mr. Blinken says in the letter, the U.S. worries that if its troops are out without a peace mechanism.
• The Taliban, which already controls much of the country’s hinterlands, could make “rapid territorial gains”.

Proposed ‘inclusive’ government:

• The U.S. seeks to stop this happening by proposing an interim “inclusive” government between the warring parties.
• Further, both sides should hold talks on the future constitutional and governance framework.
• Regional powers, including India and Pakistan, could play a decisive role in this transition as part of a UN-mandated multiparty peace process.

Exclusive Trump policy:

• This approach is more inclusive approach than what the Trump administration did.
• Under Mr. Trump, the U.S. held direct talks with the Taliban excluding the Afghan government.
• And after reaching a deal, the U.S. put pressure on the Afghan government to release prisoners, but failed to get any concessions from the insurgents on reducing violence.
• Even when Afghan government representatives and the Taliban were holding talks in Doha, Qatar, Afghanistan continued to witness violence.

The dilemma:

• The Biden administration does not seem to have faith in the Doha talks, which, even after months, failed to achieve any breakthrough.
• After 20 years of war, the Afghan leadership does not have any good options to end the conflict.
• If the Biden administration decides to stick to the Taliban deal and pull back troops, there is no guarantee that the intra-Afghan talks would hold.
• The Taliban would rather try to take over the whole country using force.
• If the government accepts Mr. Biden’s proposal, Afghanistan’s elected leaders will have to share power with the Taliban and agree to amending the Constitution, which means some of the country’s hard-won liberties could be sacrificed.
• Thus, it is a choice between two bad options.