Russia-Ukraine War: 28-Point Peace Plan

Context

The United States has secretly submitted a 28-point peace proposal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

What is the 28-Point Peace Plan ?

It is a peace roadmap prepared by the United States that aims to end the Russia-Ukraine war through negotiations. It includes conditions such as security guarantees, constitutional changes, economic assistance, and agreements on territorial boundaries.

Key Goals

• Freeze the war at its current borders
• Reduce tensions between Russia and NATO and limit NATO expansion
• Mobilize Western investment for Ukraine's reconstruction

Key Features

1. Security Framework
   • Ukraine must abandon its pursuit of joining NATO.
   • This policy will be incorporated into Ukraine's constitution.
   • The size of Ukraine's army will be reduced to 600,000 troops.
   • NATO will also have to add to its rules that Ukraine will not be granted membership in the future.
   • The deployment of NATO troops will be restricted on Ukrainian soil.
2. Territorial and Political Agreements
   • Regions such as Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk will be recognized as "practically under Russian control."
   • The existing line of control in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions will be frozen.
   • Russia will withdraw from the occupied territories except for five administrative divisions (Oblasts - a type of administrative division or region).
   • Talks will be held between the two countries to "resolve 30 years of ambiguities."
3. Economic Mechanism for Ukraine's Reconstruction
   • A Ukraine Development Fund will be created, which will invest in technology, energy, AI, infrastructure, and mineral resources development.
   • According to the US plan, $100 billion in Russian assets will be used to rebuild Ukraine.
   • The US will receive 50% of the profits from this investment.
   • The European Union will also contribute $100 billion.
4. Russia's Global Reintegration
   • If peace prevails, sanctions on Russia will be gradually lifted.
   • Russia may be re-admitted to the G8 group.
   • Long-term US-Russia cooperation on energy, rare minerals, Arctic projects, and artificial intelligence will be enhanced.
5. Security Guarantees
   • The US has also shared a separate 3-point security plan.
   • It states that Ukraine will receive NATO-level security assistance for the next 10 years.
   • If Russia attacks Ukraine again, joint military action, intelligence support, economic sanctions, and diplomatic measures will be immediately implemented, and all benefits will be withdrawn.

Russia and Ukraine's Response

• Russia's Response
  • The Kremlin has described the proposal as positive.
  • Russia views the proposal as a viable option, given its economic re-entry and regional recognition.
• Ukraine's Situation
  • Ukraine would have to cede its territory and leave NATO, which seems difficult to accept.
  • Zelensky has not yet publicly taken a final stance.

Significance of the Plan

• This is the most comprehensive and detailed peace proposal from the United States since the war began.
• It could have long-term implications for European security, Russia-NATO relations, and Ukraine's sovereignty.
• Critics say the proposal is heavily biased in favor of Russia and undermines Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Potential Benefits for India

• The lifting of sanctions on Russia will provide India with easier access to cheap and stable crude oil and gas, strengthening its energy security.
• The reduction of tariffs and restrictions on India-Russia trade will rapidly increase Indian exports in the pharmaceutical, agriculture, machinery, and IT sectors.
• Defense cooperation will be streamlined; spare parts, joint production, and projects like the S-400/Su-30 will be able to proceed without interruption.
• Banking and payment systems will be simplified, and rupee-ruble trade will revive, reducing transaction costs.
• India's increased access to Russia's minerals, energy, Arctic projects, and the Northern Sea Route will significantly benefit both the economy and logistics.

Conclusion

The 28-point peace plan is an important but controversial document toward ending the war. It could alter the geopolitical dynamics of Russia-Ukraine-US-Europe, but Ukraine may have to pay the price in the form of territorial sacrifices and the abandonment of security options like NATO. The question now is whether Ukraine can accept such a compromise.