Beijing’s Coercive Signalling: ‘Justice Mission 2025’ and Cross-Strait Tensions

Why in News ?

China recently conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan under the banner of “Justice Mission 2025”, involving coordinated deployment of army, navy, air force, and missile units.

The drills come amid heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait, following major US arms sales to Taiwan, and reflect Beijing’s increasing use of military signalling and coercive deterrence to assert its sovereignty claims over the island.

Background & Context: The Taiwan Question

The Taiwan issue is one of the most sensitive and enduring flashpoints in East Asian geopolitics.

• Historical roots: Taiwan has been governed separately from mainland China since 1949, after the Chinese Civil War, when the Kuomintang retreated to the island.
• China’s position: Beijing considers Taiwan an inalienable part of its sovereign territory under the One China principle and views reunification as a core national objective.
• Taiwan’s status: Taiwan functions as a de facto independent democracy, with its own government, military, and economy, though it lacks widespread formal diplomatic recognition.
• US role: The United States does not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state but supports it under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979), including arms sales and strategic ambiguity over military intervention.

In recent years, China has grown increasingly impatient with what it perceives as:

• Taiwan’s drift toward formal independence
• Deepening US–Taiwan political and military ties

This has led to a sharp escalation in military pressure around the Taiwan Strait.

What is Justice Mission 2025 ?

Justice Mission 2025 is a large-scale inter-service military exercise conducted by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in and around the Taiwan Strait.

Key Characteristics

• Involves joint operations of:
  • Ground forces
  • Navy
  • Air force
  • Rocket and missile units
• Designed to test integrated combat capabilities under near-real combat conditions.
• Part of China’s broader effort to improve jointness, rapid mobilisation, and precision strike capacity.

Operational Focus of the Drills

According to Chinese military statements, the exercises focused on:

• Sea–air combat readiness patrols
• Joint seizure of comprehensive superiority
• Blockade of key ports and strategic areas
• All-dimensional deterrence beyond the island chain

These elements mirror a full-spectrum coercive campaign, short of invasion, aimed at isolating Taiwan economically, militarily, and psychologically.

Strategic Messaging Behind the Exercise

Warning Against ‘Taiwan Independence’

Beijing has described the drills as a direct warning to:

• Pro-independence forces in Taiwan
• External actors accused of encouraging separatism

China reiterates that Taiwan is an inalienable part of its sovereign territory and has refused to rule out the use of force for reunification.

Signal to External Powers

The timing of Justice Mission 2025 is significant:

• It follows US arms sales to Taiwan exceeding USD 10 billion, reinforcing Washington’s role as Taiwan’s principal security backer.
• The exercise serves as a deterrent message to the United States and its allies, cautioning against military or political interference in the Taiwan issue.

Taiwan Strait and China’s Military Posture

• The PLA has increasingly normalised high-tempo drills around Taiwan, including:
  • Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) incursions
  • Naval patrols
  • Missile force readiness exercises
• These activities blur the line between training and coercion, increasing pressure on Taiwan without crossing the threshold of open conflict.

Regional and Global Implications

• Raises risks of miscalculation or accidental escalation in the Taiwan Strait.
• Undermines stability in the Indo-Pacific, a region critical for global trade and supply chains.
• Reinforces concerns among regional actors about China’s growing military assertiveness and grey-zone tactics.

For countries like India, such developments highlight the interconnected nature of Asian security dynamics and the importance of maritime stability.

Analysis: Why Justice Mission 2025 Matters

Justice Mission 2025 reflects China’s evolving strategy of:

• Deterrence through demonstration
• Joint-force readiness for contingency operations
• Political signalling backed by military capability

Rather than an immediate precursor to invasion, the exercise represents a coercive tool to shape behaviour, test responses, and assert dominance in the Taiwan Strait.