India–Russia Relations Ahead of Putin’s Visit: Strategic Signals and Future Outlook

Why in News?

India is set to host Russian President Vladimir Putin for a two-day visit to attend the 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit, even as New Delhi faces punitive U.S. tariffs linked to imports of Russian oil. The visit highlights India’s determination to maintain strong strategic ties with Russia, despite intensifying global pressure, geopolitical constraints, and an increasingly volatile global order.

Putin’s India Visits: Then and Now

Putin’s First Visit (2000):

A Relationship Built in a Turbulent Era When Vladimir Putin first visited India in October 2000, both countries were navigating uncertain phases:

• India was under Western sanctions following Pokhran-II nuclear tests.
• Russia was recovering from the Soviet Union’s collapse.
• The U.S. was a dominant superpower in a unipolar world.
• India–Pakistan ties were fragile after Kargil and the IC-814 hijacking.
• The visit came months before the Red Fort terror attack (December 2000).

Both nations were dealing with instability—though in different ways.

Putin’s 2025 Visit: Similar Pressures, Changed Capacities

His upcoming visit on 4–5 December 2025 is the first since the Ukraine war began.

Today’s context:

• Russia faces severe Western economic sanctions.
• India is hit by secondary sanctions and U.S. tariffs on Russian oil imports.
• India–Pakistan tensions have risen following fresh border clashes.
• A recent blast near Red Fort echoes past security concerns.

Yet unlike in 2000, India and Russia are stronger players today, even while being pressured globally.

India’s Defence Dependence on Russia: Declining but Still Critical

India has diversified its defence procurement, but nearly 60% of its military hardware remains Russian.

Key examples:

• S-400 air defence system: Russia has delivered 3 of 5 batteries; India now seeks five more.
• India relies on Russia for maintenance, engines, spare parts, and ammunition for long-standing systems like:
  • Sukhoi aircraft
  • T-90 tanks
  • Kilo-class submarines

Challenges

• Sanctions have slowed Russia’s export capacity.
• Western analysts say Russia’s defence output has weakened.
• Russia rejects these claims, insisting supply to India will continue.

India–Russia Oil Trade: From Windfall Gains to Sanctions Troubles

After Western sanctions on Moscow, India dramatically increased purchases of discounted Russian oil, stabilizing domestic fuel prices.

This drove bilateral trade to a record USD 68.7 billion (FY 2024–25). However:

• India exported only USD 4.9 billion, while imports touched USD 63.8 billion—a highly skewed trade balance.

Why the Tightening ?

• U.S. secondary sanctions
• Heavy tariffs on refined products
• Shrinking discounts for Russian crude
• Pressure on Indian refiners to diversify

India and Russia earlier targeted USD 100 billion trade by 2030, but that ambition is now uncertain.

What to Expect from Putin’s Visit ?

Putin and PM Modi are expected to announce progress on:

1. Labour Mobility Agreement
   • To facilitate easier movement of Indian professionals into Russia.
2. Trade Negotiations with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)
   • Essential for addressing India’s widening trade deficit with Russia.
3. Defence Announcements
   • Possible discussions on:
     • Additional S-400 systems
     • Joint manufacturing of armoured vehicles
     • Newest Sukhoi aircraft platforms
     • Greater spare-parts localisation in India
4. Market Access for Indian Products
   • Including agri-exports, pharmaceuticals, and IT services.

Strategic Balancing: India Between Russia, the U.S., and China

India seeks advanced technology, investment, and defence collaboration with the U.S. and Europe, but:

• Russia remains essential for legacy military systems.
• India is wary of Russia–China strategic proximity.
• With over 50,000 Indian troops mobilized along the China border, New Delhi needs Russia’s neutrality.

India’s foreign policy continues to operate on multi-alignment, not alliance politics.