India’s Civil Aviation Under Strain: Safety, Sustainability, and Systemic Reform

Why in News ?

India’s aviation sector is under scrutiny following repeated operational disruptions, safety incidents, and declining service reliability among major airlines, raising concerns about the sustainability, safety, and resilience of the country’s rapidly expanding air transport system.

Background and Context: Growth Outpacing Governance

Over the past decade, India’s civil aviation sector has transformed into one of the fastest-growing in the world, driven by rising incomes, urbanisation, regional connectivity initiatives such as UDAN, and aggressive fleet expansion by private carriers. India is now the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market, reflecting a structural shift toward air travel as a mainstream mode of transport.

This rapid expansion, however, has increasingly outpaced institutional capacity, manpower availability, and regulatory oversight. The sector’s growth model—characterised by ultra-high aircraft utilisation, thin profit margins, and heavy dependence on global fuel markets—has created systemic fragilities.

Globally, aviation systems absorb shocks through spare capacity, robust training pipelines, and strong regulatory buffers. In contrast, India’s aviation ecosystem operates close to its limits, making it vulnerable to cascading failures from even minor disruptions.

Overview of India’s Aviation Sector

India operates over 840 aircraft and carries more than 350 million passengers annually, making aviation a key driver of economic integration, tourism, trade, and mobility.

Rapid growth in air travel demand has been driven by:

• Rising incomes and middle-class expansion
• Regional connectivity initiatives
• Fleet expansion by private carriers

However, this expansion has exposed structural weaknesses related to manpower, regulation, market concentration, and cost pressures.

While the sector contributes significantly to national development, its current growth trajectory appears overstretched, raising concerns about sustainability, safety, and passenger welfare.

Operational Disruptions and Safety Concerns

The past year witnessed multiple operational failures, including:

• Mass flight cancellations
• Prolonged delays
• Safety-related incidents

A major disruption in December involving IndiGo acted as a failed “stress test” for the system, revealing vulnerabilities that go beyond a single airline.

These incidents were not isolated but indicative of system-wide constraints, with airlines operating close to maximum capacity.

The rising frequency of safety notices issued by the aviation regulator points to deeper compliance and oversight challenges.

Pilot Shortage and Flight Duty Time Constraints

• One of the most critical structural challenges is the acute shortage of trained pilots. India’s aviation expansion has outpaced its training capacity.
• New Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) norms, which mandate longer rest periods and reduced night operations, have made existing airline schedules difficult to sustain.
• Major airlines operate with a pilot-to-aircraft ratio significantly below global benchmarks, increasing fatigue risks and operational fragility.
• While India may require 25,000–30,000 pilots over the next decade, licensing and training bottlenecks have constrained supply, forcing airlines to rely on costly and limited foreign pilots as stopgap measures.

Regulatory Capacity and Oversight Gaps

• Regulatory stress has compounded operational issues.
• The aviation regulator faces significant staff shortages, with a large proportion of technical positions vacant despite rapid sectoral growth.
• In practice, disruptions have often been managed through ad hoc exemptions rather than strict enforcement of safety norms.
• This approach reflects a shift toward crisis management instead of preventive regulation, weakening long-term institutional capacity and undermining confidence in oversight mechanisms.

Market Concentration and the Aviation Duopoly

• India’s domestic aviation market is highly concentrated, with two airline groups controlling nearly 90% of passenger traffic.
• This level of concentration transforms dominant carriers into systemically important entities whose failures directly impact national connectivity.
• On a majority of domestic routes, only one airline operates. Consequently, disruptions do not result in passenger redistribution but in the complete loss of connectivity, particularly affecting smaller cities and time-sensitive travel.

Entry of New Regional Airlines

To address concentration and improve connectivity, the government has approved new regional airlines aimed at serving underserved routes.

These entrants align with the objectives of the UDAN scheme, which has expanded regional air access across multiple States.

However, past failures of regional airlines highlight persistent challenges such as:

• High fuel costs
• Weak demand on thin routes
• Infrastructure gaps
• Intense price competition

Without sustained policy support—such as assured subsidies, better airport infrastructure, and relief from fuel price volatility—new entrants risk inheriting the same fragilities.

Structural Challenges and Fuel Price Volatility

• Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) remains one of the biggest cost drivers for Indian airlines.
• Prices are linked to global oil markets and currency fluctuations, exposing carriers to external shocks.
• Combined with thin profit margins, this volatility has historically contributed to airline failures.
• Globally, airlines maintain spare crew and capacity buffers to absorb shocks. Indian carriers, by contrast, operate at near-total utilisation, allowing minor disruptions to cascade across networks.

Significance of the Current Aviation Stress

1. Economic Growth and National Integration

Aviation underpins trade, tourism, business travel, and regional integration. Persistent disruptions threaten economic efficiency and investor confidence.

2. Passenger Safety and Welfare

Operational fragility and regulatory gaps directly affect passenger safety, service reliability, and trust in air travel.

3. Infrastructure and Employment Impact

The sector supports millions of jobs across airlines, airports, tourism, logistics, and manufacturing. Systemic stress risks employment stability.

4. Strategic Connectivity and National Security

Reliable aviation connectivity is critical for disaster response, border management, and strategic mobility.

5. Policy Credibility and Governance Capacity

The aviation crisis tests the state’s ability to regulate high-growth infrastructure sectors effectively and transparently.

Challenges and Way Forward

Challenges

• Manpower shortages: Insufficient pilots, engineers, and regulatory personnel.
• Regulatory overstretch: Limited enforcement capacity and reliance on ad hoc exemptions.
• High market concentration: Systemic risks from airline dominance.
• Fuel price volatility: Exposure to global oil markets and currency fluctuations.
• Infrastructure and training gaps: Inadequate expansion of airports, simulators, and training institutions.

Way Forward

• Expand pilot training capacity: Invest in domestic flight schools, simulators, and faster licensing pipelines.
• Strengthen regulatory institutions: Fill vacancies, enhance technical expertise, and shift toward preventive regulation.
• Promote competition: Facilitate entry of new airlines, rationalise slot allocation, and review competition policy in aviation.
• Stabilise fuel costs: Consider rationalising ATF taxation, exploring long-term fuel hedging, and promoting sustainable aviation fuels.
• Build system buffers: Encourage airlines to maintain spare crew and operational reserves to absorb shocks.
• Enhance infrastructure: Accelerate airport modernisation, regional connectivity infrastructure, and air traffic management upgrades.