Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a defence agreement in Riyadh

Context

• On 17 September 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement. 
• The agreement states that,  “Any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” 
• This agreement comes during the period of  rising regional tensions, for instance, Israeli’s airstrike in Qatar. 
• This has risen the question about the uncertainty in the region and those traditional security partners who have been supporting during the time in need. 

Background

• Long-standing ties: The military cooperation between these two nations Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have had since the 1960s. 
  • As a result the Pakistani military troops trained Saudi military forces, Pakistani personnel were deputed in Saudi Arabia. 
  • These two countries also had agreements on security cooperation. 
• Earlier agreements: The ties between these two countries got strengthen due to a Bilateral Security Cooperation Agreement (1982) which provided institutionalised training and  advisory roles between them. 
• Geopolitical changes:
  • Middle East instability – The Israeli strikes in Qatar have raised the deep concerns among Gulf nations. The non state actors like in case of Houthis in Yemen are the alarming situation for peace in the region.
  • The deterioration of perception of relying on traditional security guarantors especially U.S.A in the region. 
  • In the mid of economic crisis in Pakistan, it is looking forward for strategic partnership. Saudi Arabia wish for diversification and stronger deterrence through defence ties. 

Key Provisions & Features

• The Mutual defence commitment: In this commitment it is believed that ‘any aggression on one country is considered aggression on the other’. 
• The Joint deterrence: It is a pact for aiming to inflate defence cooperation and joint deterrence against any threats coming in the country’s region. The diplomatic component trying to formalize the informal cooperation.
• All military means: It is an official statement which specifically indicates the access of all military and defensive means deemed necessary depending on the threat. 
  • This statement refers to wide range of armed forces capabilities that a nation can deploy during the time any threat on one nation.
• Operational uncertainty: The agreement does not explicitly define when or how exactly obligations will come into effect. 
  • The details like geographical limits, logistics, weapons, and nuclear deterrence are not publicly clarified.
    

Developments & Immediate Implications

• A message to regional countries: This pact is seen as a signal to nearby countries such as  Iran, Israel, and others that Saudi Arabia’s intention is to expand its security alliances wherever possible. 
• US and Gulf security architecture: It rises a great concern over reliance on U.S security guarantee, as Gulf states like Saudi Arabia is no more relying on it and looking for more autonomous / diversified defence arrangements. 
• Pakistan’s strategic position: Pakistan definitely is not going to miss this opportunity of cooperation with Saudi Arabia. 
  • Pakistan would most likely start backing its military, diplomatic and financial situations. 
  • This will also help in reducing external pressures upon him as Saudi may fund in more structured way especially for weapons procurement. 

Impact on India

• Responsible reply:  India has responded cautiously, stating that it is aware of the developments and assessing the implications of this pact on our national security. 
• Undeniable possibility of nuclear deterrence: Although, it in not confirmed yet whether this pact includes nuclear deterrence, still there are speculations roaming among regional and global watchers that it is an undeniable possibility.
• Strategic balance in South Asia & the Middle East: India is very much concerned about the dimensions of nuclear risk as Pakistan is involved. This pact would lead to the alteration of power perceptions and make imbalance in South Asia and Middle East countries.
• Diplomatic balancing: India has progressively developed  its good relationship with Saudi Arabia in recent years  in the field of trade, energy and investment.
  • • India is the second largest trade partner of Saudi Arabia, whereas the kingdom is the fifth largest trading partner of India.
    • In FY 2023-24, bilateral trade stood at USD 42.98 billion, with Indian exports at USD 11.56 billion and imports at USD 31.42 billion.
    • This pact would increase complexity whereby impact the trades within them.
    • Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 aligns with India’s Make-in-India to robust industrial and defence collaboration.
• Security concerns: India would most likely to change its foreign policy and defence posture as Pakistan will take this pact as a benefit for increasing military presence near the Indian border. 
  • The joint operations, logistical and intelligence sharing  would be seen hence, India must keep an eye on this subject. 
• Negative impact on Strategic ties: India and Saudi Arabia has developed diplomatic relations since 1947and concerns about negative impact going to exist in future. 
  • Key milestones pact/ties among these countries include the Delhi Declaration (2006), Riyadh Declaration (2010), and establishing the Strategic Partnership Council in 2019 in the field of defence, counter terrorism, cyber security, health, technology, space etc.

Way Forward / Recommendations

1. Enhanced monitoring & intelligence: Closely track the implementation of the pact in the areas of what hardware, deployments, joint exercises and force postures etc.
2. Deepened diplomatic engagement with Saudi Arabia:  India need to rethink about its interest to be safeguarded while balancing the ties in non-defence sectors like trade, energy, and culture. 
3. Broader regional cooperation: Need to reaffirm partnerships not only with Saudi Arabia but other Gulf States to deepen strategic ties and to balance shifting dynamics. 
4. Defence readiness & strategic clarity: Review implications for India’s defence posture, especially for threats emanating from western / northwestern directions. Bolster capabilities for surveillance, deterrence, and response.
5. Clarification on rules of engagement and nuclear policy: India need to engage its diplomatic efforts to reduce the possible outcome of the pact as it is not cleared whether “all military means” includes nuclear sharing or has other meaning.
6. Active role in Multilateral forums & international law: India need to use multilateral diplomacy to ascertain about non-aggression, interstate conflict resolution. It also need to ensure that the pact doesn’t violate regional stability and International law.