TRUMP’S DRAFT UKRAINE PEACE PLAN: KEY FEATURES & IMPLICATIONS

Why in the News ? 

Former US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a 28-point peace plan to end the Russia–Ukraine war. The draft, seen by Axios, AFP, and AP, proposes territorial concessions to Russia, Ukraine’s exclusion from NATO, and Russia’s return to the G8.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would discuss the plan with Trump, emphasizing that any deal must ensure a “dignified peace” respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty. Several Ukrainian officials, however, denounced the proposal as “absurd” and a “capitulation.”

Background

• The plan was reportedly drafted jointly by Russian and US officials, including Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, and US special envoy Steve Witkoff.
• The White House has stated that President Trump supports the proposal.
• US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have been “quietly” working on it for about a month.

Key Features of the 28-Point Plan

1. Territorial Adjustments

a. Recognition of Russian Control

• Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk would be recognized as de facto Russian territories by both the US and Ukraine.
• Ukraine currently controls parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, which constitute the Donbas industrial region.

b. Demilitarized Zones

• Areas of Donetsk from which Ukraine has withdrawn would become demilitarized zones where Russian forces will not enter.

c. Frozen Conflict Lines

• Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions would be “frozen along the line of contact,” reflecting Russia’s existing occupation lines.

d. Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant

• The Russian-occupied plant would be placed under IAEA supervision, with electricity shared between Ukraine and Russia.

2. Security Provisions

a. Limits on Ukraine’s Military

• Ukraine’s armed forces would be capped at 600,000 personnel, significantly reduced from current wartime levels.

b. NATO Conditions

• Ukraine would be:
  • Barred from joining NATO
  • Subject to a ban on NATO troop presence on its territory

This aligns with longstanding Russian demands and contradicts Kyiv’s stated security goals.

c. Security Guarantees

• Ukraine would receive unspecified “reliable security guarantees.”
• European jets would be stationed in Poland, not Ukraine.

3. Diplomatic and Economic Measures

a. Russia’s Reintegration

• Russia would be:
  • Readmitted into the G8
  • Reintegrated into the global economy
  • Freed from many sanctions

b. Conditional Sanctions

• If Russia invades Ukraine again:
  • All sanctions would snap back automatically
  • Western powers would launch a “decisive coordinated military response”

c. Frozen Assets and Reconstruction

• $100 billion in frozen Russian assets would be used for rebuilding Ukraine.
• Additional funds would be invested in a US–Russia joint investment fund aimed at strengthening cooperation and reducing chances of renewed conflict.

d. Domestic Reforms and Elections

• Ukraine would hold national elections within 100 days of agreement.
• Both nations would implement educational programs promoting tolerance, cultural understanding, and anti-racism.

Reactions to the Plan

1. Ukraine

• Zelenskyy: open to discussion, but insists on sovereignty and independence.
• Ukrainian officials: strongly oppose the plan, calling it:
  • “Absurd”
  • “Capitulation”
  • A threat to Ukraine’s continued existence

2. Europe

• European allies are expected to resist, arguing they must have a role in negotiations given NATO’s eastern flank security concerns.

3. Russia

• The plan aligns heavily with Russia’s maximalist demands, making Moscow likely receptive.

Possible Implications

For Ukraine

• Loss of territory
• Security vulnerability due to NATO exclusion
• Heavy political divisions within the country

For Russia

• Diplomatic and economic rehabilitation
• Formalization of gains in Crimea and Donbas
• Increased leverage over future regional order

For Europe

• Reduced influence in negotiations
• Security concerns on NATO’s eastern front
• Precedent of territorial concessions under military pressure

For Global Order

• Could normalize “peace through concession” models
• Reshapes US–Russia relations
• Disrupts existing international sanctions architecture