India’s Monsoon Vulnerability

Context

• India’s dependence on the southwest monsoon remains a recurring theme in its socio-economic and environmental landscape.
• Despite technological advancements, policy reforms and diversification of the economy, the monsoon determines agricultural production, rural incomes, water security and inflation trends.
• The uneven spatial distribution of rainfall once again highlights the deeply embedded vulnerabilities in India’s development trajectory.

India’s Vulnerability

Irregular development in hilly areas

• Despite experts warning of irreversibly weakened slopes in the Himalayan states, deforestation and road widening continue in eco-sensitive areas without accommodations such as slope-safe engineering.
• Despite frequent disasters, early warning and evacuation systems are still underdeveloped.
  • The ability to forecast heavy rainfall has improved but it is not being translated into reliable ground warnings.
• Relief agencies are activated after damage occurs but systematic exercises, pre-packaged supplies and community preparedness remain inadequate.

Indian Monsoon Patterns and Anomalies

• Monsoon anomalies: The 2025 monsoon has seen significant anomalies, such as late onset in some areas, flooding in some and prolonged drought in others.
• Increase in extreme events: Frequent cloudbursts, urban flooding and drought-like conditions in rain-fed areas.
• El Niño-La Niña cycle: The El Niño-La Niña cycle remains a crucial external factor but local factors such as deforestation, groundwater depletion and rapid urbanisation are increasing the intensity of its impact.

Monsoon Dependence of Indian Agriculture

• About 50% of India’s net sown area is rain-fed, making monsoon performance crucial for food security.
• Crops such as pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals are highly monsoon dependent. Decreased production due to poor rainfall leads to supply shortages and food inflation.
• Irrigation networks are still imbalanced and eastern and central India lags behind in terms of canals, increasing dependence on erratic rainfall.

Water Crisis and Urban Vulnerabilities

• Floods and droughts have become commonplace these days. Cities such as Delhi, Bengaluru and Chennai face urban flooding due to poor drainage while the surrounding rural areas are facing groundwater crisis.
• Groundwater, which meets more than 60% of irrigation and more than 80% of drinking water requirements, is rapidly depleting.
• Monsoon recharge is inadequate due to increased concrete construction in urban areas and loss of wetlands.

Economic impact

• Erratic rainfall increases inflationary pressures, especially in the food and energy sectors.
• The gap between rain-fed farmers and those with assured irrigation is widening, deepening rural distress.
• Disaster relief costs and infrastructure damage are putting further pressure on state finances.

Way Forward

• Climate-resilient agriculture: Widespread adoption of drought-resistant seeds, crop diversification and efficient water-use technologies such as micro-irrigation
• Expanding irrigation infrastructure: Completion of pending projects under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana, equitable distribution of canal systems and revival of traditional water bodies
• Urban planning: Stormwater drainage, wetland conservation and sponge-city models to reduce flood losses
• Water governance: Integrated water management, stringent groundwater regulation and community-led recharge initiatives
• Disaster preparedness: Expanding early-warning systems, climate insurance coverage and resilience building in vulnerable districts
• Policy coordination: Coordination among ministries of agriculture, water and urban development for holistic monsoon management

Conclusion

India’s dependence on monsoon is a structural weakness but not a permanent crisis. By incorporating climate adaptation, sustainable water use and resilient agriculture into policy, India can reduce its vulnerability to monsoon shocks.