Political Turmoil in Bangladesh After Hasina Death Sentence

Why in the News?

Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been sentenced to death by the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) for crimes against humanity linked to the 2024 student-led protests.

Hasina, who has been staying in India since the collapse of her government in August 2024, was convicted for allegedly ordering the killing of 12 unarmed protesters in Dhaka and Ashulia on August 5, 2024.

She also received a life-term for inciting violence and authorising attacks using lethal weapons, helicopters, and drones.

The verdict has triggered intense political reactions within Bangladesh and is expected to influence the run-up to the February 2026 national elections.

About the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT)

Overview

The International Crimes Tribunal, established in 2009, is a special domestic court set up by the Hasina government.

Origins & Purpose

• Created to try individuals for atrocities committed during the 1971 Liberation War.
• Promised during the 2008 campaign to prosecute “war criminals”, especially those accused of collaborating with Pakistan.

Functioning & Criticism

• Conducted aggressive prosecutions, particularly targeting leaders from Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party.
• Faced international criticism:
  • Human Rights Watch (2012) termed the trials “deeply problematic”, citing concerns over judicial independence, fairness, and political bias.

Hasina’s Fate: Exiled, Convicted, and Politically Isolated

Exile and Legal Standing

• Living in India since August 2024, Hasina dismissed the verdict as politically motivated.
• The ruling—linked to a broader crackdown that reportedly caused 1,400 deaths—significantly impacts her political future.
• Her return to Bangladesh appears unlikely, placing her in long-term political isolation.

Awami League in Leadership Crisis

• Hasina fled without naming a successor, creating a vacuum in party leadership.
• The Awami League, currently banned from contesting elections, faces:
  • Confusion over strategy
  • Declining public support
  • Demoralised cadres feeling abandoned

Yunus’s Rise: Interim PM and Symbol of Justice

Reformist Positioning

• Interim Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus, who returned during the 2024 turmoil, has built an image as a clean, reformist leader.
• Welcomed the verdict as proof that “no one is above the law.”

Growing Legitimacy

• The ruling strengthens his credibility amid:
  • Restlessness within the Army
  • Delays in the election timetable
  • Demand for political stability
• Yunus increasingly appears as a figure capable of guiding Bangladesh through a turbulent political phase.

BNP’s Position: Seeking Political Revival

Opportunity to Regain Ground

• The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) welcomed the verdict as overdue justice.
• After years of legal challenges and political marginalisation, the BNP views this as a critical chance to re-emerge before the 2026 elections.

Internal Challenges

• Key concern remains the leadership question:
  • How will Khaleda Zia position her exiled son Tarique Rahman as the party’s PM candidate?

Jamaat-e-Islami’s Unexpected Strategy

Political Repositioning

• Jamaat-e-Islami, revitalised after major victories in student union elections, has taken a surprising stand by demanding Hasina’s return from India.

Motivation

• Aimed at:
  • Pressuring New Delhi
  • Appealing to nationalist sentiments
  • Expanding its electoral influence

2026 Electoral Ambitions

• The party seeks to emerge as a significant player in the upcoming elections—either as:
  • A BNP ally, or
  • A major opposition force on its own

India’s Calculated and Cautious Stand on the Hasina Verdict

Official Response

• India stated it has “noted the verdict” of the ICT.
• The Ministry of External Affairs avoided both endorsement and criticism, signalling caution.

Commitment to People, Not Regime

India emphasised its commitment to the people of Bangladesh—highlighting peace, democracy, inclusivity, and stability.

• Notably, India’s statement did not explicitly side with the interim government.
• Reference to “inclusion” subtly reflects India’s preference for allowing the Awami League to participate in future elections.

Shelter for Hasina, No Extradition Signals

• India continues to host Hasina, as it did during 1975–1981 after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
• Despite public demands for extradition within Bangladesh:
  • India cites concerns about political motivation and fairness of trial.
  • Delhi retains legal grounds to deny extradition.

Non-Interference: Bangladesh’s Internal Matter

• India views Hasina as a long-time ally who supported counter-radicalism and bilateral cooperation.
• However, Delhi prefers non-interference in Bangladesh’s evolving domestic politics.

Strategic Calculus: No Benefit in Sending Hasina Back

• Extraditing Hasina is unlikely to bring strategic gains with the present Bangladeshi establishment.
• Maintaining refuge for her remains India’s most stable and least risky option.

Significance of the Developments

Regional Stability

Impact on India-Bangladesh ties, security cooperation, and border management.

Political Transformation

Potential restructuring of Bangladesh’s political landscape before 2026 elections.

Human Rights & Governance

Raises questions on due process, political retribution, and judicial independence.

Geopolitical Implications

Possible shifts in regional alignments involving India, China, and Western democracies.

Challenges

• Risk of political polarisation and civil unrest in Bangladesh
• Declining public trust in institutions
• Leadership vacuum within major political parties
• Rising influence of extremist or fringe groups
• Concerns over judicial credibility and fair trials

Way Forward

• Strengthen political dialogue among all major factions
• Ensure transparent and inclusive electoral preparations
• Promote safeguards for judicial independence
• Encourage India-Bangladesh cooperation on democratic stability
• Support confidence-building measures to ease political tensions