Tehran: The Emerging Center of Global Geopolitics

Context

• Iran's nuclear program is not merely a technical dispute, but a complex focal point of security concerns, regional hegemony, and superpower diplomacy. What appears to be a debate about nuclear capabilities is actually a broader battle for influence, deterrence, and political legitimacy in West Asia.
• History shows that US policy on this issue has revolved in a cyclical manner, starting with negotiations, then withdrawal from the agreement, then extreme pressure, and finally a return to diplomacy. This situation makes it clear that hostile relations cannot be resolved by military force alone; ultimately, solutions lie at the political table.

The Rise of Diplomacy: The JCPOA (2015)

• The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was the result of years of hard work between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany).
  • Main objective: Western countries suspected Iran was developing nuclear weapons, while Tehran claimed it was merely a civilian energy program.
  • Basis of the agreement: The agreement was based not on "trust" but on "verification," which included rigorous inspections and limits on uranium enrichment.
  • Result: Iran received relief from economic sanctions, and the international community succeeded in halting the nuclear arms race. This was a classic example of pragmatic diplomacy.

Policy of Pressure and Military Confrontation (2018-2025)

• The US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 under Donald Trump's leadership proved a major turning point. This was called the policy of "Maximum Pressure."
• By 2025, the situation had deteriorated to the point where military attacks on Iran's nuclear and air defense systems, supported by Israel, were even witnessed. 
• These attacks damaged infrastructure but did not eliminate Iran's technological know-how or its geopolitical intentions. This proved that dialogue is not an alternative.

Perspectives of Key Stakeholders

1. Israel: Existential Defense

• Iran's nuclear acquisition poses an existential threat to Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu's policy has been clear: Iran must be prevented from reaching the threshold of nuclear capability at all costs. Israel emphasizes complete prevention, not just containment.

2. Gulf Countries: Prioritizing Stability

• Countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates compete with Iran, but they are not in favor of all-out war. Their economies depend on oil exports and global trade routes. Any major conflict could devastate the global energy market and regional infrastructure.

3.Iran's Internal Politics

• The economic situation and protests within Iran influence Iran's foreign policy. External military pressure often strengthens hardline factions, reducing the scope for compromise for reformist forces.

India's Strategic and Economic Concerns

• For India, this dispute is not merely a distant matter, but a matter of direct impact:
  • Energy security: Iran has historically been a major oil supplier to India.
  • Connectivity (Chabahar Port): Chabahar Port is India's gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.
  • Regional balance: Iran's role is crucial for the stability of Afghanistan and Central Asia. Sanctions hamper India's trade and strategic investments, so India has always favored a diplomatic solution.

Conclusion

• The Iranian nuclear issue reinforces an eternal truth of international relations. No matter how deep the conflict, a solution ultimately emerges through dialogue. Agreements like the JCPOA may not be perfect, but they manage risks better than uncontrolled conflict. Lasting security is possible only through sustained diplomacy, as the alternative of war and retaliation is not only uncertain but also extremely destructive to the global economy.